At least nine polls taken after the Democratic National convention Polls on Trump vs. Harris 2024 show that Vice President Kamala Harris beats former President Donald Trump. This adds to her winning streak in polls and gives her a bigger lead over Trump since July, though it is the same size as her lead before the convention.
Polls on Trump vs. Harris 2024
Ipsos/ABC News Poll
An Ipsos/ABC News poll taken August 23–27 found that Harris has a 50%–46% lead with all registered voters and a 52%–46% lead with likely voters. These numbers are pretty much the same as two weeks ago, when Harris had a 4-point lead with registered voters and a 5-point lead with likely voters (margin of error = 2 points).
A poll of 2,191 potential voters by Outward Intelligence from August 25–29 found that the vice president was ahead by more than five points in both two-way (52.6% to 47.4%) and five-way (49.5% to 44%) matchups with third-party candidates.
As of Thursday, a Wall Street Journal Polls on Trump vs. Harris 2024 showed that Harris beat Trump 47%–45% when third-party candidates were taken into account and 48%–47% when the two candidates were compared directly. This is the first time in over a year that Trump has lost in a Journal poll, as opposed to Trump’s 49%–47% head-to-head lead a month ago (the poll polled registered voters from August 24–28, margin of error 2.5 points).
Quinnipiac’s first Poll
Quinnipiac’s first poll of likely voters gave Harris a 49%–47% edge, which was within the poll’s 2.4-point margin of error. Trump and Harris had a 45%–45% edge among independents (the poll, which was taken Aug. 23–27 and let people choose third-party candidates), but Harris’ lead drops to 49%–48% in a head-to-head race.
Suffolk/USA Today Poll
A Suffolk/USA Polls on Trump vs. Harris 2024 taken August 25–28 found that the vice president had a five-point lead over Trump among likely voters, with 48% to 43%. This is a huge change from the previous poll, which found that Trump had a 41%–38% lead over President Joe Biden right after Biden’s bad showing in the June debate (the latest poll’s margin of error is 3.1 points).
Ipsos/Reuters Poll
An Ipsos/Reuters poll of registered voters released on August 29 gave Harris a 45%–41% lead, which was more than the poll’s 2-point margin of error and more than Harris’s one-point lead in late July. In early August, another Ipsos poll that didn’t include Reuters gave Harris a 5-point edge.
A few other Polls on Trump vs. Harris 2024 showed that Harris’ lead had pretty much stayed the same since the Democratic National Convention. In an Economist/YouGov poll, she was ahead of Trump by two points, which was the same as three points a week earlier and two points two weeks ago. In a Yahoo News/YouGov poll, she was ahead by just one point, which was different from a tie right after the Republican National Convention when Biden was still in the race.
A Polls on Trump vs. Harris 2024 of registered voters by Morning Consult from August 23–25 shows that Harris has a bigger lead over Trump (48% to 44%). These results are similar to those from a poll the group did before the Democratic National Convention in Chicago last week.
Since Harris entered the race in July, most polls have shown that the Democrats are now in the lead. For example, CBS and YouGov polls of likely voters showed that Harris had a 51%–48% edge, and an Emerson College poll of likely voters showed that Harris had a 50%–46% edge.
Fox News’ poll, which came out on August 15, was the only major one in the past few weeks. It showed that Trump was ahead among registered voters by 50% to 49%.
A Big Number
A new poll from RealClearPolitics shows that Harris is ahead of Trump by 1.8 points. FiveThirtyEight’s weighted average, on the other hand, gives Harris a 3.2-point lead.
Against
After Biden dropped out of the race, Trump led Harris in at least eight other polls. However, most show Harris cutting into Trump’s lead, and her approval rate has been going up since she announced her run. A poll by the New York Times and Siena from July 22–24 found that Trump had a one-point lead over Harris (48% to 47%). Another poll by HarrisX and Forbes, released June 26, found that Trump had a two-point lead (47% to 45%).
What does Harris do in swing states against Trump?
A Polls on Trump vs. Harris 2024 by Bloomberg and Morning Consult from August 23–27 shows that Harris is ahead of Trump by two points in the seven states that are most likely to decide the election: Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Nevada, Arizona, North Carolina, and Georgia. In six of the seven states, Harris is ahead of Trump. In Arizona, they are tied.
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